Oscar Predictions!

On March 7, 2010, dozens of celebrities will thank the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences (for doing whatever it does) and accept gilded statuettes for their cinematic accomplishments.  But most will remain in their seats and hold back tears (later they will order another drink and heap artificial praise on their rivals).

Who will the little golden men go home with this year?  Read on.

My brother John and I have wagered cold cash on the outcome.  Regardless of what filmmakers actually deserve the awards, we predict merely who will win them.  We base our predictions upon a combination of industry buzz, personal opinion and insider information.  Below are my predictions, followed by John’s.  For the sake of competition, disagreements are in italics.

Best Picture: AVATAR

Acting

• Best Lead Actor: Jeff Bridges in CRAZY HEART (though Jeremy Renner in THE HURT LOCKER is tempting)
• Best Lead Actress: Sandra Bullock in THE BLIND SIDE (though Carry Mulligan in AN EDUCATION is tempting)
• Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Walz in INGLORIOUS BASTERDS (though Matt Damon in INVICTUS tempting)
• Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique in PRECIOUS, without any real contest

Directing (this is the real race this season)

• Best Director: Katherine Bigelow for THE HURT LOCKER, though James Cameron (AVATAR) and Jason Reitman (UP IN THE AIR) are probably equally deserving, and Lee Daniels (PRECIOUS) is very close behind them.

Writing (there are a number of close races on the lit side too, for those of us who care)

• Best Original Screenplay: I call Mark Boal for THE HURT LOCKER, but might regret it because voters are itching to give the Pixar team kudos for UP, and Tarantino (INGLORIOUS BASTERDS) has become a go-to awards guy because for some reason the French people like him.
• Best Adapted Screenplay: I predict Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for UP IN THE AIR, but in a perfect world it would probably go to Geoffrey Fletcher for PRECIOUS.

Music

• Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” for CRAZY HEART by Ryan Bingham (yes, like the protagonist of UP IN THE AIR).

And John’s picks:

Best Picture: AVATAR.  We agree, therefore it must happen.

Acting

• Best Lead Actor: Jeremy Renner (though George Clooney is a good possibility)
• Best Lead Actress: Helen Mirren (though Carry Mulligan is tempting in more than one way)
• Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (though Christoph Waltz is a good one)
• Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, agreed

Directing

• Best Director: James Cameron

Writing

• Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino for INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for UP IN THE AIR

Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” (because he has heard me humming it constantly since before the CRAZY HEART premier)

John and I agree on the more obvious choices with the exception of Best Actor.  Renner may give a better performance in THE HURT LOCKER than Bridges does in CRAZY HEART, but the Academy has historically voted for more than just the performance in question.  Renner is totally new on the awards scene, while Bridges’ career included THE BIG LEBOWSKI for which he would have won the Oscar in 1998 if he wasn’t up against Roberto Benigni in LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL….  Bridges was nominated four times and never won, and now CRAZY HEART is a convenient reason for the Academy to congratulate him.

Biggest Oscar letdown?  NINE.